New Year, Same 1223b8c30a347321299611f873b449ad

Wish you a happy and more importantly … healthy 2021 !

Nobody will be missing the year 2020 AD apart from the various beneficiaries of the biggest monetary intervention in history (you know who you are). As it has been some time since I posted anything, I felt it would be a good opportunity to look back into some of the portfolios, themes and trades of 2020.

Let’s start by the pandemic portfolio I suggested back in April 2020 - the low equity exposure pandemic portfolio (LEEPP ? … nah have to think of something more catchy). In a year where equities scaled new highs, was it possible to get decent returns from a rather boring portfolio with smaller downside excursion probability than stocks by the strategic addition of small asymmetric upside bets ?

I think the answer is an unequivocal yes. My uninspiring non 60/40 low equity exposure portfolio outperformed handsomely Nasdaq by showing +218% returns from inception in early April to the end of 2020. And it is much higher in 2021 given the massive moves in digital assets.

So what can we expect in 2021 ? Well, in short probably more of the same: rising real asset prices on a backdrop of zero rates and massive global socioeconomic uncertainty while the pandemic is in its (hopefully) final legs.

I think the more pertinent question investors should be asking is: what can we expect in the 20s - what does this decade bring ? Another roaring 20s after a century’s cycle or something more sinister ?

Referring to my Amara’s law newsletter post, let’s revisit those long term trends as a potential guide. Will be focusing on these themes in longer, more focused posts in the future.

  • Climate Change: Yes there are still people denying it but there are also a lot of active flat earth groups on Facebook. As the facts are now impossible to ignore expect ESG, Renewables and Electrification to keep dominating investor’s radars in the years ahead. Furthermore expect wake up calls around “greenwashing” and a related tech industry to emerge around monitoring and verification of stated environmental data. Artificial intelligence and blockchain will play a central role in this process.

You can find me from time to time on Twitter and also occasionally playing with charts on TradingView. Happy to connect with driven and action oriented individuals in finance and tech that enjoy building and collaborating on non-zero sum, positive impact projects.